Trend Technician

A lot of traders, myself included, have a tendency to excuse their wrongness with the notion that they were right, just at the wrong time. In fact I have a technique for using calls to alleviate just this issue. John Roque was notorious for warning about how financials would underperform, just before they skyrocketed upward. He now wants us to be skeptical again:

Sadly I was on the same boat with him then and I’m on the same boat with him again. While I generally wouldn’t want to touch financials, if I had to take a position in the “premium” issues, I would be short. Goldman Sachs has had a huge run. It’s priced for a “V” recovery that isn’t going to happen. This isn’t a technical view, but I wouldn’t trust an indicator that told me otherwise.

I think a trading range is a best case scenario at this point. The bulls seem to have run out of steam. The only thing that makes me hesitant is the fact that so many people agree. Analysts on the whole seem to range from neutral to bearish. While there are a few out there who are rah-rah-ing the bull market claims, they really seem marginalized. I’m never comfortable when the consensus is agreeing with me.

I’ve been liking covered calls and I’m liking them even more now. At best we’ll continue with a bull rally I don’t believe in and very possibly worse. If I left my positions uncovered I probably wouldn’t have the conviction not to take profits anyway, so I might as well get paid for putting in my limit order.