A lot of traders, myself included, have a tendency to excuse their wrongness with the notion that they were right, just at the wrong time. In fact I have a technique for using calls to alleviate just this issue. John Roque was notorious for warning about how financials would underperform, just before they skyrocketed upward. He now wants us to be skeptical again:
Sadly I was on the same boat with him then and I’m on the same boat with him again. While I generally wouldn’t want to touch financials, if I had to take a position in the “premium” issues, I would be short. Goldman Sachs has had a huge run. It’s priced for a “V” recovery that isn’t going to happen. This isn’t a technical view, but I wouldn’t trust an indicator that told me otherwise.
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